Tony Time: Why The Best Thing For Conor McGregor is a Ferguson Win.
- MMA News Now
- Jan 21, 2020
- 6 min read
By: Joseph Unger
Last weekend, amongst a swirling cloud of controversy and intrigue, Conor McGregor stepped back into the UFC Octagon and did what he was supposed to do; he dismantled Donald Cerrone, an opponent who seemed like he was tailor made to lose to Conor.
Seemingly on a downturn of his career, a big name action fighter susceptible to speed and southpaws. It took Conor less than a minute to get the job done, and before the fight was even over, everyone was already asking who Conor’s next opponent would be.
Despite callouts from Floyd Mayweather, Justin Gaethje, Manny Pacquaio (?) and even everyone’s favorite BMF; the man that Conor (and more importantly, Dana White), want next is the current UFC LW Champ, Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Yes, that very Khabib who absolutely wrecked Conor in his last fight, who seemed to barely break a sweat and never once seemed in danger against the Irishman.
That same Khabib who faces the toughest test of his career in April, against former/maybe interim champ and absolute badass Tony Ferguson.
Tony is on a 12 fight win streak and chomping at the bit to fight Khabib. They say 5th times the charm, and finally, hopefully, Khabib and Ferguson will get to prove who is the best lightweight in the world, and possibly stake their claim amongst the GOAT discussion. It is without question, one of the most intriguing championship bouts in UFC history.
Conor has called dibs on the next shot. By all accounts, he and Dana white seem to think this is Khabib’s fight to lose, and both want it for the monster box office receipts it would generate. However, I’m here to tell you why Conor should be rooting for the other guy to win on April 8th.
First, let’s state the obvious; Conor and Khabib is a blood feud. Would it really matter if there was a belt on the line? It’s like Jones/DC, or Rousey/Tate. When two fighters genuinely don’t like each other, the tension is palpable, and that gives the fight an added shine.
Sure, we all love Mixed Martial Arts because of the respect between these warriors testing their mettle in the cage, but sometimes its just fun to watch two people who don’t get along beat the hell out of each other under sanctioned rules of combat.
I know what you’re going to say, those rivalries I mentioned earlier all had a belt on the line. But did that matter that much? Would the box office receipts have taken that much of a hit without a belt? As Conor just showed, he certainly doesn’t need a belt to draw eyeballs, and a rematch with Khabib would have the whole world abuzz.
But a belt would likely help this. However, I genuinely do not believe Conor has the skillset to defeat Khabib Nurmagomedov. I believe that Khabib wins that fight 9 times out of 10. Khabib is too strong of a grappler, too focused, a stellar athlete who plows forward with sloppy but improving hands and surprising speed in his hands, who leaves almost no room for error. The scariest thing about Khabib is that you know exactly what he is going to do, but you just can’t stop him. On top of this, Conor often wins his fights before he gets in the cage, through a combination of trash talk and media pressure. It’s not just that Conor will trash anyone and everyone with seemingly no remorse, but most fighters aren’t used to the media pressure that comes with a Conor fight.
It’s one thing to be in the main event, to be a champion on top, but having seemingly every eye on you is a whole different beast. When Conor fights, the world watches, and most fighters aren’t accustomed to that kind of attention, coupled with a dangerous Irishman running his mouth like hes got a diesel engine in it and a strong desire to knock you out. Khabib is different though.
Maybe it’s his devout Muslim upbringing, or his lifetime of competitive sports, or his father/head trainers strict regiment, but Khabib seemed unphased by Conor’s trash talk. One of Khabibs most dangerous weapons is his focus. When the cage door closes, Khabib is centered on defeating his opponent and implementing his gameplan, and mitigating any tool his opponent might have. He may talk to his opponents (and the UFC front office) midfight, but he never stops doing his job until that cage door closes and his hand is raised.
He proved once that he was immune to Conor’s trash talk, no matter how personal it got, so why is there any thought that Conor could get inside his head the second time around, when Khabib has seen what the Irishman has to offer and knows he can win?
This is why Conor needs Tony to win. A Tony win does 2 things; firstly, it gives Conor a much more winnable fight to the 155 belt, it also adds a layer of intrigue to the inevitable Khabib rematch.
Let’s talk about Tony Ferguson for a second. Tony is an absolutely amazing fighter, one of the most wild, unorthodox strikers ever, slicing his opponents with spinning elbows and kicks from out of nowhere, who seems always down to throw caution to the wind and has sneaky power to go with his pinpoint accuracy and absolutely devastating guard. However, Tony’s game is not without it’s flaws. Tony gets hit. A lot. And he gets knocked down. Not every fight, but enough that it should cause him some concern against power strikers.
In his last 5 fights, Ferguson came close to getting finished by strikes by both Anthony Pettis and Lando Vannata. Part of his balls to the wall, kitchen sink striking approach will always leave Tony open to counter-strikes, particularly after overextending on his punches, something McGregor would surely take advantage of.
More important, Tony is less likely to wrestle. Tony loves to grapple and will set up timely double legs, but he almost never takes a wrestle first approach, despite his college wrestling background.
This is great news for Conor, who’s ground game is good at best, and mostly just passable. Conor is very strong and will use that to stop takedowns, but prefers to keep fights standing. If Conor is going to win another UFC belt, it will be on the feet, that’s a guarantee.
More importantly, a Ferguson win actually helps the Conor/Khabib rematch. As mentioned earlier, Khabib is not phased by Conor’s trash talking. He is focused and one of the mentally strongest fighters of all time, a large contributor to his 28-0 record. But what if he lost? What if he gets finished by Tony? Plenty of high level athletes have talked in length about the mental rigors of sports, and this is perhaps most true in fighting. It’s a traumatic thing to lose and get beat up, even if its for sport. That takes a toll on you, and what do you do if you’re so used to winning when suddenly you don’t?
This would be unfamiliar territory for Khabib, and for all we know, a loss could absolutely destroy his confidence and focus. It would add an incredible question mark to any Khabib/Conor rematch, far more than if Conor went in there and faced the same Khabib who tooled him for 3 rounds before. But with a Khabib who has finally tasted defeat, all bets are off.
If Khabib can beat Tony Ferguson in April, he has a strong case to make as the greatest lightweight of all time, and perhaps the greatest fighter ever. I’m not sure what another win over Conor would do for his legacy, other than saying “Duh.” Khabib doesn’t have much reason to fight Conor, and there are other, better challengers, waiting in the wings. Khabib could also just go up and find new challenges at 170.
Furthermore, I just don’t see how Conor beats Khabib, save for a first round knockout, against a very careful fighter who has shown to have a strong chin (especially if he can withstand Tony’s barrage).
Khabib will give Conor even less openings then he did in the first fight, and I think it would be a repeat of the first fight. But Tony? Tony presents Conor an opportunity. Tony is a more winnable fight for Conor, and less likely to exploit his weakest areas. But what Tony really gives Conor is hope. Not just hope to win back his lightweight belt, but hope to beat Khabib. If Tony can get it done, then he shows that it’s possible. He may break Khabib’s confidence.
And that is all that Conor can hope for.
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